Tag: ghana

Ghana's Debt Crisis

Navigating Ghana’s Debt Crisis: An Update

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group monitors labor market trends making headlines worldwide, ensuring you are updated on the latest developments.

As the world grapples with economic uncertainty, one country that stands out in its struggle is Ghana—a gold, cocoa, and oil producer in West Africa.

In 2022, we published a headline article on Ghana, detailing the government’s efforts to stabilize the economy amidst a cost-of-living crisis. In our article, “Ghana’s Cost of Living Crisis: What You Need to Know,” we also explored the growing concerns surrounding the country’s surging inflation.

Since then, Ghana has plunged into a financial crisis—its worst in a generation—mostly due to its rising debts. AllAfrica.com reports that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio has reached 98.7%, severely hindering the country’s economic growth and stability.

According to an article by the New York Times, Ghana’s debt crisis has reached a critical juncture: the government was struggling to meet its financial obligations. On 19 December 2022, Ghana suspended payments on most of its external debts, effectively entering a state of default. By the end of 2022, Ghana owed US$63.3 billion to both foreign creditors and domestic lenders.

The government’s decision was met with mixed reactions, with some welcoming it as a necessary step to restructure Ghana’s debts. Other voiced concerns about its long-term implications.

A strain on households and businesses

The debt crisis is greatly affecting individuals and firms across Ghana. In a survey by Afrobarometer, 87% of citizens think the country is heading “in the wrong direction.” Rising prices have eroded purchasing power, making it difficult for many to afford necessities. Businesses are facing increased costs and reduced consumer demand.

A World Bank report estimated that 850,000 Ghanaians have drifted into poverty due to double-digit inflation. And over the past two years, anti-government protests have become more frequent, news outlets like the BBC and Business Insider Africa have reported.

The government’s response to the debt crisis

However, the Ghanaian government has not been idle in the face of the debt crisis. It has embarked on several actions to address the matter, including seeking aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and implementing austerity measures.

Seeking financial aid from the IMF. In May 2023, Ghana secured an Extended Credit Facility amounting to US$3 billion over the span of three years. “It is the 17th time Ghana has been compelled to turn to the fund since it gained independence in 1957,” the New York Timesnotes.

The Washington-based lender has laid out a detailed rescue plan to get Ghana back on its feet. The plan includes measures to cut back on debt and spending, raise revenues, and protect the poorest. In the meantime, Ghana shall continue to negotiate with its foreign creditors.

As a result of its strong performance in meeting IMF targets, Ghana reached an agreement on 6 October 2023 to unlock the next US$600 million of its financing.

Restructuring debts. To meet IMF conditions, Ghana has also embarked on comprehensive debt restructuring. The New York Times remarks that “the debt situation was so unusual that the IMF, for the first time, made settling its domestic debt a prerequisite for a bailout.” A partial restructuring, which included swapping local bonds with new ones and extending due dates, was launched in December 2022 and completed in February 2023.

In May 2023, Ghana’s creditors formed a committee for debt restructuring talks. It received a “working proposal” a month later, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. As of this writing, Reuters reports that Ghana is in the advanced stages of restructuring its external debts, with hopes of achieving a resolution by the end of 2023.

Other reforms. Additionally, the Ghanaian government is complementing IMF aid and debt restructuring with reforms in tax policy, revenue administration, and public financial management. The reforms aim to restore economic stability and debt sustainability, while protecting the vulnerable, preserving financial stability, and laying the foundation for strong and inclusive recovery.

Despite the challenges, there have been some positive developments. The IMF sees that Ghana’s commitment to strong policies and reforms is bearing fruit. “Signs of economic stabilization are emerging. Growth in 2023 has proven more resilient than initially envisaged, inflation has declined, the fiscal and external positions have improved, and the exchange rate has stabilized,” the lender said after its first review in October 2023.

Despite these efforts, Ghana’s debt crisis is far from over. As they navigates this challenging period, it is crucial for organizations to stay informed. By understanding Ghana’s debt crisis, your organization can better prepare for similar situations in other labor markets.

How Birches Group can help

Ensure you are always prepared for changes in market conditions with our Market Monitor. Our trusted resource provides you with insights into current developments in emerging markets, empowering you to make informed decisions and adapt to new challenges.

Subscribe now and embark on a journey toward a deeper understanding of the market. Take the first step toward enhanced market insights today.

References:

Ghana’s Cost of Living Crisis: What You Need to Know

Ghana’s Cost of Living Crisis: What You Need to Know

Written by Bianca Valencia on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group has been keeping an eye on economic conditions in Ghana and wants to provide updates on recent developments in the West African nation. 

One of West Africa’s more prosperous countries has been rocked by a cost-of-living crisis. Inflation in Ghana reached 29.8% in June 2022, the highest level in two decades. The Guardian reports that food prices have risen by 30.7% since last year, and energy costs have sharply climbed. Transportation costs have also gone up. 

Our August 1 Market Monitor further indicates that the Ghana cedi has seen an exchange rate movement of 34% against the US dollar, Euro, British Pound, and West African CFA Franc in the past six months. As inflation persisted and broadened, hundreds took to the streets of the capital Accra to protest the deteriorating economy. 

President Nana Akufo-Addo has stressed that the economic challenges the country is facing are the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The government is seeking a support package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which visited Ghana in July. In a July 13 statement, the IMF said that such adverse developments “have contributed to slowing economic growth, accumulation of unpaid bills, a large exchange rate depreciation, and a surge in inflation.” 

What the labor market indicates 

The Ghanaian labor market exhibits rapidly evolving market conditions. Birches Group’s Market Monitor categorizes labor market conditions according to levels of volatility, with Level One as the lowest (reporting standard market conditions and market movement between 0–20%) and level six as the highest (where the country has reported labor market collapse, departure of most comparators from the market, and absence of reliable data on currency and inflation). In our latest Market Monitor, Ghana is classified as Level Three, where there are rapidly evolving market conditions, movement of more than 40% in the last 12 months, and multiple reviews and revisions are typical amongst comparators. While the surge of inflation has been swift in the country, labor market data has not moved as fast.  

Based on our salary survey analysis, no labor market movement was observed in July 2021.  

The chart above shows labor market movement in Ghana against reported inflation rates from July 2021 to July 2022 based on Birches Group’s multi-sector salary survey. As seen in the chart, labor market movement significantly increased in 2022, but inflation rates have always been much higher and moved at a faster rate from 2021. We believe this is because inflation or the cost of living is not directly proportional to the cost of labor. 

Next steps for employers 

When labor market conditions become volatile, such as in Ghana, organizations should establish policies and procedures to keep pay programs functioning and maintain business continuity. Through a Special Measures Policy, organizations need to determine the appropriate triggers based on labor market conditions that demand an update in salaries and benefits. Organizations must also decide how they plan to implement the next steps for their staff. Employees need to know that they can count on their employer to assist them amid the burgeoning crisis. 

How can we help 

We at Birches Group have extensive expertise in developing Special Measures Policies for organizations across different markets and sectors. Contact us today to find out how we can create one for you. 

References: 

  • 1 August Market Monitor Report